We're all dead as door-nails, right?
In terms of global temperature, it appears we have already reached a tipping point. We’re all gonna die, then. It’s over. Might as well engage in the dystopian hedonism of a sci-fi flick, accepting that we’ll soon be eating food synthesized from grubs a la “Bladerunner: 2049.” Right?
Well, perhaps it is a tad early to be building that doomsday bunker.
In our results-focused society, it is quite easy to resign to an inevitable fate, even when that outcome is unfathomably distant. In all the time we worry about something far off, circumstances can change, and that dreaded disaster we seem to be crawling towards may be averted. For now, in terms of treating our climate, the challenge at this point seems insurmountable. “Points-of-no-return” have been passed. It would take almost herculean shifts in human civilization to avoid climatic ruin, while still maintaining the upward trend of prosperity we have enjoyed since humans first discovered agriculture. In the Information Age, we seem to have come to care greatly for our species’ future. We have all of human history and culture at our fingertips: This has markedly condensed the passing of time, and shrunk the world. A century forward feels like tomorrow, even if most of us will be long dead.
What does that mean for our fight against climate change?
Ultimately, climate change, in some capacity, has arrived, and it is far more imperative to acknowledge, manage, and eventually diminish the changing factors of our lives due to these conditions. Really, the year 2100 ought to mean almost nothing to us, regardless of whether we care to save our species or not. Instead, let us focus on the issues we face now, as they are, and those we face in the next 20-30 years:
The (increasing) Fickleness of the Weather
This aspect of climate change is certainly the most tangible, as we have already experienced rather unusual conditions across the globe. Worse still, natural disasters such as hurricanes have grown in their ferocity, swallowing entire island nations, and destroying more infrastructure than ever before.
The EPA reports US average temperatures have increased, especially in the northern reaches, including Alaska, as well as in the West. Temperature extremes (high and low) have shifted nationwide, with more highs than lows than in the past. Worse still, this trend persists after the sun sets, with increasing numbers of hot nights, and less cool-off. Prolonged high-heat periods are also seeing a dramatic uptick, and this has had profound effects on certain regions of the US, as well as the world. In 2011, parts of Oklahoma and Texas experienced a 100-day heatwave. Since climate records were taken in 1895. There had never been a “multi-month” heatwave. Droughts continue to plague the Southwest, and the National Climate Assessment (a federal gathering of climate experts) points out that as moisture is less prevalent in soil, more heat is absorbed into the ground, leading to even hotter and dryer summers. Even in areas where precipitation stays stable, the heat may be further outpacing the usual rainfall.
On the subject of rain, in more humid regions, the saying “when it rains, it pours” has become increasingly literal. The EPA reports that since the 80s, extreme, single-day rainfall has become considerably more common. If you live in an area prone to flooding, expect flash-floods to occur in greater frequency. River-flood rates have also changed: less in the Southwest, more in northern states. As for other storms, including snow, hail, and lightning, there is still not enough understanding of how (and to what extent) human activity influences them. Snow seems to have decreased in the southern half of the US, while staying mostly the same in the North. Globally, the northern hemisphere has seen an average decrease in snowfall. Tentative trends indicate more thunderstorms are on the horizon.
Extreme Weather and the Sea
The same uncertainty applies to natural disasters, thanks to changes in measurement, but the last two decades have seen hurricanes grow steadily more devastating. Cities further inland have proven vulnerable, as the world watched Houston become a wading pool. The city is surrounded by swampland, and local authorities certainly had their fair share of warnings, each year worse than the last. Honestly, we may never fully reverse climate change, but the least we can do in the meantime is ensure that real action is being taken wherever there is a danger of something like this happening. As we see in Houston, minimal expenditure and dumping the problem on the less fortunate parts of a city will not save it.
Of course, normal rainfall is not the sole factor in the severe flooding seen on the news, year by year. Rising sea-levels have ravaged coastal settlements immensely, as we saw during hurricane Katrina, and more recently in New York City in 2012. How does the sea-level keep rising? The most commonly known reason is the polar ice caps melting away, but the reality is more complicated. According to the NCA, the ocean absorbs around 90% of all the heat generated by human activity, and this causes the water itself to expand (“thermal expansion”). This is a strong example of how oversimplification of scientific claims can hold back progress. It’s safe to say most of us thought only melting ice contributed to rising sea-levels. As a politician throwing a snowball onto the floor of congress has demonstrated, misinformation is a valuable tool in the effort of those who value profits over life on Earth. Smother it where you see it.
How high will the sea rise in the near-future? Unfortunately, even projections set for the year 2100 are somewhat unsure. Since such data was initially recorded in the late 19th century, the sea has already risen around 8 inches. By 2100, projections forecast anywhere from 1 to 4 up to feet. The best guess, then, would have to consider that the rise-rate would be exponential; The next two decades may only be a few more inches, but from there, it could rise much more quickly. NASA reports a yearly rate of 3.7 millimeters (or 0.04 inches) every year. Thankfully, real-life measurements of the sea-level are lower than that. However, overall, all projections range from 0.42 meters to 1.8 meters for total sea-rise by 2100, so there’s plenty of uncertainty there.
Food Production on the Rise (and Fall)
Our ability to feed the population is vital to our survival. The ways in which we generate and consume food could be endangered by rising temperatures, increased pollution, and more volatile weather. Drought is a serious factor, but that has been a worry for quite some time, while other factors have been ignored or misunderstood:
One common misconception is how CO2 affects plants and agriculture overall. So, if plants utilize CO2 for photosynthesis, expelling oxygen, why should the increase in carbon cause us to worry for them? Ultimately, CO2 does indeed accelerate plant-growth, but it also makes for plants which are thirstier, and hungrier for nutrients. According to the EPA, studies have shown that increased CO2 levels may cause a net decrease in production, as the plant grows beyond the environment’s capacity to sustain it. Furthermore, overall nutrition has been shown to decrease in areas with CO2 concentration: alfalfa and soybeans, vital crops for feeding livestock, have already seen decreases in protein, nitrogen, iron, and zinc content. This also applies to grass growing in pastures and fields that herded livestock feed upon. Worse still, higher temperatures promote the growth of parasitic weeds, which steal away even more nutrients, as well as insects which prey on crops, forcing the use of toxic pesticides.
The soil itself is contributing to its own deficiency, and even to climate change itself. As it gets hotter, microbes such as fungi and other microorganisms, which break down organic matter, emit more CO2 as they increase their consumption. Plants above then draw a portion of the CO2 back in, where it goes down to the roots. In reality, carbon (the solid) is actually quite beneficial plants, as it helps them to retain other nutrients. Unfortunately, this is counter-acted upon by those heat-accelerated microbes, and the two forces continue to feed into each other. According to the Institute for Sustainability, Energy, and Environment at the University of Illinois, the next hundred years could see Midwestern soil losing roughly 15% of its stored carbon, and in turn, its overall fertility.
From flora to fauna
Production from livestock will face a lot of the same problems that agriculture does. Quality and supply of feed are at risk. Drought threatens the grass of pastures, and even in those spared from excess heat, the quality of the grass is diminished. Livestock would have to eat more off the land, even if the population stays the same. 2011 saw the US lose $1 billion in livestock expenses, just due to high heat. Parasiticides are increasingly prevalent, as the animals are easy prey for insects and parasites.
As for fisheries, there are several issues plaguing the oceans ability to sustain life. From microplastics, to oil spills, to overfishing by reckless fishing fleets. Rising temperatures have lead to a migration of sea life further from the equator. Fish and other sea creatures do not run into too many obstacles in the search for colder waters, so the true issue is that native populations will be forced to contend against the intruding species. In addition, warmer waters have allowed diseases to spread further, affecting more fish and crustaceans.
So how will that affect my diet in the coming years?
Who does this hurt the most?
For those living in the developed world, the answer is pretty comforting. As of now, those who are further from the equator have less to worry about, as the likelihoods of drought and extremely high temperatures for a given crop (and their livestock beneficiaries) are certainly lower. However, the global average increase in CO2 and temperature still points to a trend in less nutritious food, both from agriculture and the livestock which feeds on those crops (which may lead to resorting to more unhealthy feed substitutes). Still, it should not be an immediate issue for those living in more developed areas.
For now, it is the poorest countries and communities nearest to the equator which have felt the worst effects. The UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) has carried out detailed studies of farming communities and the local economies of both Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia (namely India), focusing on climate change’s effects on crop yields and their income. The significant factors for these regions are uncertain weather patterns and an inability to counteract adverse conditions. When local conditions are less stable, crop yields and their revenues drop. Farming communities on the equator have certainly never had it easy, but this is compounded by many of those nations lacking the capital to avoid such losses. As the FAO points out, richer countries can avoid such losses (and actually make gains) because they have the resources to develop infrastructure. Water canals can be built, pesticide can be deployed, for a price. Those living in relative abundance can expect to stay that way, for the time-being.
This still means that many developed countries are forced to divert money towards simply keeping things as they are, and the problem will continue to grow. The upkeep may lead to higher prices down the road for basic foods. Eventually, government and corporate treatment of the symptoms will not be enough, and our ailing agri-infrastructure may reach a critical stage. It would probably be in our best interest to make some adjustments soon, including a potential rethink on how we raise crops.
Current Health Trends (not yoga)
Disease and pollution, at present, are mostly wreaking havoc on poorer nations and the lives of those in the developing world (but also those in richer areas) are under increasing danger. According to the WHO, increase in temperatures are beneficial to disease-carrying species, which spread further as more territory becomes habitable. Malaria already kills 400,000 people per year, worldwide. By 2030, the WHO speculates that number will swell by 60,000. This is less of a concern for those in the developed world, but in a few years, disease in general may become much more prevalent in places that were considered more “temperate.” The CDC warns against Lyme disease from ticks, which are dying off at lower numbers, thanks to warmer winters, and West Nile virus, commonly from mosquitoes. These threats are especially exasperated in places where natural disasters have struck, with flood waters creating stagnant pools.
Heat waves are another concern, and one that is common even in the developed world. In 2003, Europe recorded 70,000 deaths due to extreme heat. This is partially a cultural thing, as many European households to this day have no central air. The world’s elderly are still quite vulnerable, as they are less capable of dealing with the heat (Ironically, this may cause many retirees move back up north). Excessive heat can also be dangerous to those with respiratory problems, as the heat amplifies the number of allergens in the air. On a “code red” day, in which the temperature hovers around 100 degrees, and low-elevation ozone and humidity are high, can render an asthmatic struggling to breathe within seconds. (Writer’s note: I have experienced this first-hand…) With average temperatures rising, these concerns will only get worse.
Another respiratory issue is, of course, air pollution. Approximately 4.3 million deaths by household pollution alone, along with an additional 3 million from outdoor pollution. This is an issue wealthier societies ought to be mindful of too, but in places like New Dehli or Beijing, the pollution has been substantially more deadly. In Delhi, the pollution in recent years has gone off the charts, with little to no government response. Even the local population is apathetic, with many denying anything is wrong at all. This is what “progress” can look like, as the poorest simply have little to no time, nor the resources to contest the issue, while the country remains hesitant to slow down growth. Beijing, however, has been a different story in recent months. Since the end of 2017, authorities have worked doggedly to cut pollution in the city, with a great deal of success. Even then, measures taken to clean the air were at times brutal (expulsion of migrants, teardowns of neighborhoods, all-out bans on coal to heat households), and much of that pollution has simply shifted to surrounding areas.
A brief psa
Public health is likely the most immediate of climate change threats (day to day), so here are a few things those in urban and rural areas can do to stay healthy:
- Make sure there is adequate ventilation in your home (check the filters!).
- Check sites like gov (or search “AQI [city name]” in google) for a forecast of your local city’s pollution levels on a given day, and plan accordingly.
- Contact local/state government and push for more efforts in determining local sources of pollution. Chances are there is an equitable solution for all parties to help keep the air/water clean. If they say there isn’t, be sure to investigate their campaign finance, no matter the party…
- Be careful in the brushes and swamps! A field of tall grass can be lousy with ticks, especially in the Northeast of the continental US, but any forested region is risky, so it may be worth it to tuck your pants into your socks. It may look silly, but it could save you years of sitting in a wheelchair (for some “Lymies,” that’s considered a good day). High-humidity regions will only grow their mosquito population, so use repellent, bug-zappers, or whatever keeps them off to stay on the safe side.
- Take extreme-heat days seriously. Braving the outdoors on days like that may seem okay at first, but heat-related illness may sneak up on you.
The little things (for) life
Certainly, for most affluent communities living further from the equator, things will stay mostly the same for a good while, but part of avoiding the future we fear so much is making gradual changes that will have a meaningful impact down the road. So long as we wait on some ultimate cure (nuclear fusion, space colonies) to save us from ruin, the world will degrade.
Here’s a cheery metaphor:
The atomic bomb ended World War 2, but it took every citizen of the Allies working diligently over years to defeat the Axis Powers. In that time, every vital resource was heavily rationed, and old pots and pans were collected to build tanks. Everyone chipped in. That ultimate scientific discovery had little to do with it. Yes, this crisis is not as immediate or tangible, but the goal is no less achievable. A balance must be struck between total despair over far-off ruin and living entirely in the present, without a care for our actions; Both of these accomplish nothing.
What Must Be Done
Not everything causing climate change can be easily affected by everyday citizens, but outside of government action, we still have the freedom to change things:
- Cattle/Livestock: This may be one of the hardest sacrifices of all, especially for Americans, who consume quite a lot a of meat. Luckily, beef and other cow products, which produces the vast majority of GHG in agriculture, has already declined in demand. Nevertheless, saving the world will require an even stronger cultural shift. A primer published by Johns Hopkins gravely points out that even if, by 2050, society manages to correct all of the other major threats (transportation, industry), the likelihood of staying under the 2 degree threshold will be quite bleak. If animal rights aren’t a strong enough motivation for veganism, perhaps steadily reducing pollution is. Believe it or not, the vegan craze has yielded some more-than-decent recipes and restaurants. Yes, you can indeed satisfy your protein needs on a vegan diet. The more we all attempt to eat in this way, the better it will be for greenhouse gas levels.
- Taking advantage of public transportation is a fantastic way to help the environment, but the US still has a way to go. Thankfully, this is beginning to change in many urban centers, and demand is rising From bike lanes, to subways, to bus lines, Americans are ready to travel much more efficiently. The less cars on the road (until electricity takes over), the better.
- Solar technology is not what is used to be. It’s a lot better. These days, quality has skyrocketed, while prices have taken a nosedive! Investing in solar is a win/win for those living in rural and suburban communities, where power is utilized less efficiently than in cities. With prices per-panel continuing to drop (even without tax incentives!), investing in solar makes for a quicker return than ever before, with the US average payback taking only 7 years. This may seem like a long time, but even if you decide to move, the panels will add at least enough value to the property to pay for itself. If it’s not too sunny where you live, it still pays (both in dollars and to the climate) to shore up insulation, a common issue contributing to every home’s appetite for power.
We Move Forward
People will never cease to be clever. There will be no shortage of great ideas to enhance our efficiency, and better yet, we have already observed many of them function successfully. Not every single idea or adjustment will apply or resonate with each household or individual, but all of us are capable of taking more steps in the right direction, adopting what is feasible. It will take creativity, patience, and a degree of sacrifice, but we do indeed have the power to clean up our act and ensure a future for this planet, and our species.
Seriously, what is the point of all this quiet despair? It’s clear that, buried under all our day-to-day troubles, we gravely fear the pain we may be deferring to our great-grandchildren. It doesn’t help we are inundated with alarms from publications recycling and reposting articles on social media, showing a hundred scientists saying we’re screwed. Okay, well great, it’s settled. We can give up, take the easy way out, relax. Since we’re so aware of ourselves as a species and our history, is there any indication that humans, by and large, roll over and die? Look to the spires we have built, the flags planted on the moon, the evil within us we have defeated, and you have your answer.
